South Florida Water Management District Weather
9:53AM Friday, April 24, 2026 (tbk)
…scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms expected this afternoon over the south-central & southeastern interior of the SFWMD…much lower area-averaged rainfall likely north of Lake Okeechobee…little to no rain expected along & near the west coast…
…an increase in shower & thunderstorms activity possible over the southern & western interior of the SFWMD Saturday afternoon…
…scattered to numerous afternoon showers & thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon from the central interior of the SFWMD to the east coast…well ahead of a weak ‘backdoor’ cold front…little rain to no likely along & near the west coast…
…a weak ‘backdoor’ cold front likely to cross the SFWMD on Monday…widely scattered showers along & near both east and west coasts possible directly ahead of it…
…a significant drying trend likely Tuesday through Friday next week as mid-level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico takes control…high rates of ET likely with warming temperatures…
…total weekly SFWMD rainfall likely below normal…but rainfall over the interior south and west of Lake Okeechobee could be near-normal…
|
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast |
24Hr Begin 8AM Fri |
Local Max |
24Hr Begin |
24Hr Begin |
24Hr Begin |
24Hr Begin |
|
Upper Kissimmee |
.02 |
<1" |
.03 |
.21 |
.02 |
.0 |
|
Lower Kissimmee |
.02 |
<1" |
.04 |
.28 |
.02 |
.0 |
|
Lake Okeechobee |
.03 |
<1" |
.08 |
.13 |
.02 |
.0 |
|
East Agricultural Areas |
.08 |
1" |
.14 |
.30 |
.02 |
.0 |
|
West Agricultural Areas |
.10 |
2" |
.16 |
.18 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Conservation Areas 1&2 |
.11 |
1.5" |
.15 |
.36 |
.05 |
.0 |
|
Conservation Area 3 |
.21 |
3" |
.23 |
.25 |
.02 |
.0 |
|
Martin/StLucie Counties |
.02 |
<1" |
.06 |
.19 |
.05 |
.0 |
|
East Palm Beach County |
.06 |
<1" |
.07 |
.35 |
.07 |
.0 |
|
East Broward County |
.09 |
<1" |
.06 |
.31 |
.07 |
.0 |
|
East Miami-Dade County |
.05 |
<1" |
.06 |
.14 |
.07 |
.0 |
|
East Caloosahatchee |
.09 |
2" |
.20 |
.11 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Big Cypress Preserve |
.28 |
3" |
.29 |
.12 |
.01 |
.0 |
|
Southwest Coast |
.08 |
1" |
.11 |
.03 |
.01 |
.0 |
|
District Overall |
0.08 |
- |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
|
Forecast Confidence |
Moderate |
- |
Mod-Low |
Mod-Low |
Moderate |
High |
|
Most Likely Range |
0.02-0.09 |
- |
0.05-0.15 |
0.07-0.20 |
0.01-0.04 |
0.00-0.01 |
|
Discussion: A southern jet stream disturbance extending from the southeastern United States into the western Caribbean at daybreak today will continue east of the region after crossing Florida this morning. As it departs, the Polar Front -- defined by a stationary boundary stretching from north of the eastern Greater Antilles to southeastern Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico -- will buckle in response to the digging disturbance, inducing a frontal wave to form along it over east-central Cuba that will accelerate east-northeastward into the southeastern Bahamas later today. Consequently, the primary rainfall shield associated with this system will organize over Cuba and adjacent waters before shifting away from Florida with the developing surface low.
Prior to that evolution, and as the surface low begins to take shape over east-central Cuba, a weak low-level trough connected to the system and supported by the upper-level disturbance will bring widely scattered, light showers across the region this morning. In the wake of this feature, residual moisture will persist, although moisture levels will begin to decrease some during the afternoon. Even so, a weak southwesterly to westerly steering wind flow on the backside of the low-level trough will intersect the east-coast sea breeze as it progresses inland. Combined with sufficient daytime surface heating and near average instability, this environment is forecast to yield a relative concentration of showers and thunderstorms across the south-central and/or southeastern interior of the SFWMD, possibly extending to a lesser extent along the west-coast sea breeze over the western interior. Farther north, particularly north of Lake Okeechobee where moisture is more limited, only widely scattered activity is anticipated, with much lower area-averaged rainfall. Additionally, earlier expectations for heavier rainfall across the Florida Keys have diminished, except over the Florida Keys, as most of the heavier rainfall is now expected to remain farther south over Cuba.
Area-averaged rainfall across the south-central to southeastern interior of the SFWMD through 8 AM EDT on Saturday is forecast to range from approximately 0.15 to 0.30 inches, with a westward decrease to little or no rainfall along the west coast and relatively light amounts along the east coast. North of Lake Okeechobee, only a couple of hundredths of an inch of area-averaged rainfall are expected. A reasonable worst-case scenario would support around 0.40 to 0.50 inches of area-averaged rainfall over the south-central to southeastern interior, with up to 0.10 to 0.20 inches extending along the southern periphery of Lake Okeechobee and into portions of the Lower East Coast and 0.20 to 0.25 over the western interior.
On Saturday, a new upper-air disturbance will emerge from the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, then dig along an axis extending from the Mid-Atlantic into the northeastern Gulf by Sunday morning before merging with the prior disturbance east of Florida and carving out a broad trough of low pressure at upper levels over the western Atlantic early next week. In advance of this feature, a weak cold front will progress through the southeastern United States on Saturday, reaching far northern Florida by daybreak on Sunday before advancing southward into the northeastern portion of the SFWMD during the early morning hours on Monday.
Ahead of the front on Saturday, a westerly steering wind flow, enhanced deep-layer moisture, and near-average instability will support scattered to locally numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the southern and western interior of the SFWMD, the latter along the inland-moving west-coast sea breeze. By Sunday, the steering wind flow will veer from westerly to northwesterly while moisture levels potentially increase further. This environment should favor a good coverage of rainfall by the evening, focused from the central interior to the east coast, with comparatively limited activity along the west coast.
By Monday afternoon, as the merged upper-air disturbance intensifies and digs over the western Atlantic, its associated cold front should gradually move through the remainder of the SFWMD. In advance of the boundary, reduced moisture and lower instability, combined with northwesterly steering winds, will likely result in only widely scattered, light showers along and near the east coast in association with the sea breeze, with lesser activity along and near the west coast and minimal activity elsewhere.
By Tuesday, strengthening large-scale subsidence on the backside of the intensifying trough over the western Atlantic and associated with the expansion of mid-level high pressure from northeastern Mexico into the Gulf will promote a pronounced drying trend. This pattern is expected to persist through at least Friday, with the high shielding the SFWMD from any new frontal boundaries. Meanwhile, temperatures will respond by trending warmer, and possibly significantly so by next weekend. Under dry conditions, an increasing sun angle, and an occasional breeze, elevated evapotranspiration rates are likely.
For the week ending next Friday morning, total SFWMD rainfall is expected to be below the long-term average, with the highest weekly rainfall most likely occurring south of Lake Okeechobee and potentially also over the western interior. |
Friday: Somewhat breezy. Widely scattered, light showers this morning area wide. Then, scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly concentrating of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the southeastern to south-central interior of the SFWMD. A relatively good coverage of rainfall possible over this region, along with localized, substantial rainfall totals. Little to no rain along the west coast likely. Widely scattered shower activity possible north of Lake Okeechobee but with much lower area-averaged rainfall expected. SE to ESE winds 10 to 20 mph and occasionally gusty, except SW to W along the west coast this afternoon spreading inland over the western interior. Overnight, E to SE winds 1 to 4 mph south of Lake Okeechobee and S to SW north of the Lake. Long periods of calm.
Saturday: Widely scattered showers possible during the morning along and near both east and west coasts of the SFWMD. Then, a good increase in rainfall from scattered to locally numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the southern and possibly western interiors of the SFWMD. Widely scattered activity over the Kissimmee Valley. Localized, substantial rainfall totals possible. SSE to S winds 1 to 5 mph south of Lake Okeechobee and S to SW north of the Lake. Long periods of calm.
Sunday: Widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible near and inland of both east and west coasts by late morning. Then, breezy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible from the central interior of the SFWMD to the east coast. A good coverage of rainfall possible, along with localized, significant rainfall totals. SW to W winds 9 to 18 mph during the morning, increasing to 12 to 22 mph and gusty during the afternoon, except SE to S along the east coast. Overnight, a weak cold front will push into areas northeast of Lake Okeechobee, with wind shifting NW to NNW 2 to 7 mph over this region and generally WNW to NW 1 to 5 mph elsewhere.
Monday: Widely scattered, mainly shower activity possible along and not far inland from the east coast during the afternoon and inland of the west coast as a weak ‘backdoor’ cold front pushes southwestward through the area. Much lower area-averaged rainfall likely compared to the weekend. N to NNE winds 9 to 18 mph, increasing to 12 to 21 mph and gusty during the afternoon and W to NW 9 to 18 mph ahead of it. Overnight, N to NW winds 2 to 7 mph over the eastern half of the area and N to NE over the western half of the area.
Tuesday: Mild, breezy, and dry area wide. High rates of ET likely. Winds quickly veering NNE to NE 10 to 19 mph during the morning and then E to NE 13 to 22 mph and gusty during the afternoon. Overnight, N winds 2 to 6 mph over the eastern half of the area and NNE to NE 1 to 4 mph over the western half of the SFWMD.
Wednesday: Somewhat breezy and warmer, especially the western half of the SFWMD. Likely dry SFWMD wide. High rates of ET. ENE to NE winds 9 to 18 mph, veering ENE to E during the afternoon (except for a west coast sea breeze near and inland of the west coast. Overnight, ESE to SE winds 1 to 4 mph south of Lake Okeechobee and SE to S north of the Lake (0.00").
Thursday: Likely dry and warmer still area wide, especially over the western half of the area. High rates of ET continuing. ESE to SE winds 9 to 18 mph but SW to W 13 to 22 mph and gusty during the afternoon over the western half of the SFWMD. Overnight, SE to S winds 1 to 5 mph south of Lake Okeechobee and SW to W north of the Lake (0.00").
7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most Likely Range): 0.42" (0.16"-0.50")
Historical 7-Day Average: 0.70"
Lake Okeechobee Info:
https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt