South Florida Water Management District Weather

9:48AM Saturday, January 10, 2026 (mrn)

...warm and dry into Sunday with isolated light showers periodically moving onshore along parts of the east coast and Florida Keys...

...a frontal passage on Sunday evening with brief light showers over the Kissimmee...

...the front to return to the area as a warm front on Tuesday, returning moisture and fueling shower activity mainly south of the Lake...

...a widespread coverage of rainfall is possible on Wednesday and Tuesday ahead of the next cold front...

...a return to cooler, drier, and breezy conditions on Friday following a frontal passage...

...above average total SFWMD weekly rainfall is likely...

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast	24Hr Begin   7AM Sat	Local Max	24Hr Begin 7AM Sun	24Hr Begin 7AM Mon	24Hr Begin 7AM Tue	24Hr Begin 7AM Wed
Upper Kissimmee	.0	0"	.01	.0	.01	.52
Lower Kissimmee	.0	0"	.0	.0	.01	.43
Lake Okeechobee	.0	0"	.0	.0	.01	.43
East Agricultural Areas	.0	0"	.0	.0	.01	.52
West Agricultural Areas	.0	0"	.0	.0	.01	.34
Conservation Areas 1&2	.0	0"	.0	.01	.04	.68
Conservation Area 3	.0	<1"	.0	.0	.03	.45
Martin/St Lucie Counties	.01	<1"	.0	.0	.01	.47
East Palm Beach County	.01	<1"	.0	.02	.04	.60
East Broward County	.0	<1"	.01	.08	.06	.62
East Miami-Dade County	.0	<1"	.01	.08	.07	.46
East Caloosahatchee	.0	0"	.0	.0	.01	.33
Big Cypress Preserve	.0	0"	.0	.0	.02	.26
Southwest Coast	.0	0"	.0	.0	.02	.25
District Overall	0.00	-	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.43
Forecast Confidence	Mod-High	-	Mod-High	Moderate	Low	Mod-Low
Most Likely Range	0.00-0.01	-	0.00-0.01	0.00-0.04	0.00-0.06	0.17-0.55

Discussion: A mid-level ridge remains located directly over Florida, maintaining generally warm and dry conditions, but this feature will gradually shift eastward into the western Atlantic by Sunday as an upper-level trough digs into the eastern U.S. Under this pattern, today and Sunday will be characterized by warm temperatures and breezy southeasterly winds. While subsidence will limit rainfall across interior areas, shallow Atlantic moisture embedded within the low-level flow may periodically move onshore, allowing for isolated light showers along portions of the east coast and across the Florida Keys.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to dig into western North Carolina, driving a cold front southward toward Florida. The front is expected to reach central Florida by Sunday afternoon or evening before moving offshore of the southeast Florida coast by Monday. Moisture and large-scale forcing along the boundary will be limited, so any associated shower activity should remain isolated and light, primarily affecting the Kissimmee Valley. The light frontal rains are expected to dissipate as the front progresses southward across the state.

In the wake of the front on Monday, the low-level winds will veer from southeasterly to northeasterly as high pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary. This will usher in slightly cooler and drier conditions across interior portions of the region. However, the northeasterly steering currents may transport shallow Atlantic moisture containing isolated light showers onshore along parts of the lower east coast and the Florida Keys throughout the day.

A transition back to a warmer and more humid pattern is expected on Tuesday as the frontal boundary lifts northward across the area as a warm front. This will occur in response to a developing upper-level trough over the central U.S., which is forecast to dig toward the northern Gulf Coast by Wednesday night. As the warm front advances north, the low-level flow will veer southwesterly, allowing warmer temperatures and increasing moisture to return to the region.

By Wednesday, the upper-level trough will become highly amplified as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, with an associated cold front advancing into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of this system, deep tropical moisture will be transported northward into Florida, with mid-level relative humidities increasing into the 80–90% range. Florida will also be positioned along the eastern flank of the upper-level trough, a region favorable for large-scale ascent and rising motion. This combination of deep moisture and synoptic forcing will create a favorable environment for widespread rainfall.

Showers may begin increasing across the SFWMD on Wednesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible south of Lake Okeechobee and along portions of the east coast, where southwesterly steering flow will focus the storm activity towards the coast after the atmosphere destabilizes. Farther north, particularly across the Kissimmee Valley and parts of central Florida, warm moist air overrunning the frontal boundary could result in a more persistent area of light to moderately heavy rainfall beginning Wednesday afternoon and potentially continuing into the overnight hours. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact placement of this rainfall axis, as it will depend on the eventual position of the warm front.

By Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to reach its southernmost extent over the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a southern-stream upper-level disturbance currently over western Mexico may round the base of the trough and move into north Florida, eventually phasing with the larger system. This approaching system could support an additional round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, spreading from west to east across the SFWMD. This shower activity will be associated with the advancing cold front, which is expected to clear the area by Thursday evening, ending all rainfall and ushering in cooler and drier conditions under breezy northwesterly winds.

Behind the front, a cool and dry air mass will overspread the region on Friday, eliminating rain chances entirely.

For the 7-day period ending next Saturday morning, above average total rainfall across the SFWMD is likely.

Saturday: Conditions will remain warm and dry over the interior. Isolated light showers may periodically move onshore along parts of the east coast and the Florida Keys during the morning and afternoon. SE winds at 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Conditions will remain warm and dry over the interior but become cooler overnight following a frontal passage. Isolated light showers may move onshore along parts of the east coast and the Florida Keys, while isolated showers could enter the Kissimmee Valley ahead of a frontal passage during the late afternoon and weaken as they move south. Light and variable winds south of the Lake, becoming N at 10-15 mph by the evening in association with a frontal passage.

Monday: Drier and slightly cooler conditions over the interior. Isolated light showers may move onshore along parts of the lower east coast and the Florida Keys throughout the day. NE winds at 10-15 mph.

Tuesday: Low confidence forecast. Warmer and more humid conditions as the frontal boundary retreats northward. Isolated light showers may develop across most areas during the afternoon. Widely scattered light showers could also form south of Lake Okeechobee and along portions of the east coast. E/ENE winds at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: Light showers may move into some areas during the morning. By the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop south of Lake Okeechobee and along portions of the lower east coast, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, a band of light to moderately heavy showers may form over northern Kissimmee, producing steady rain throughout the night. SSW/W winds at 5-10 mph south of the Lake; N/WW winds at 5-10 mph north of the Lake; becoming NW at about 5 mph with occasionally calm conditions everywhere overnight.

Thursday: Low confidence forecast. Warm during the day, becoming cooler after sunset following a frontal passage. Light showers could enter the western portions of the SFWMD during the morning, increasing in coverage by the afternoon. Light to moderately heavy rain could occur across the Kissimmee and parts of the southwest coast, ending by the late afternoon. Most rainfall should end during the evening following a frontal passage. SSE winds at 5-10 mph early, veering SW at 10-15 mph by the afternoon, and then NW at 15-20 mph by the evening (0.33”).

Friday: Much cooler and drier conditions following a frontal passage. No rainfall expected. NW winds at 5-10 mph (0.00”).

7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most Likely Range):  0.79" (0.25"-1.07")

Historical 7-Day Average:  0.46"

Lake Okeechobee Info:

https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt