South Florida Water Management District Weather
9:49AM Monday, June 15, 2026 (mrn)
...dry along the Gulf coast, while heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop along parts of the east coast during the afternoon...
...a similar rainfall pattern is expected on Tuesday...
...the subtropical ridge will rebuild across Florida by Wednesday, transporting a pocket of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) into the region...
...little to no rainfall is expected on Wednesday based on this setup...
...a frontal boundary could cause moisture levels to rebound by the weekend...
...much below average total SFWMD weekly rainfall is likely...
|
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast |
24Hr Begin 8AM Mon |
Local Max |
24Hr Begin |
24Hr Begin |
24Hr Begin |
24Hr Begin |
|
Upper Kissimmee |
.18 |
1.5" |
.36 |
.05 |
.21 |
.15 |
|
Lower Kissimmee |
.18 |
1.5" |
.18 |
.07 |
.17 |
.18 |
|
Lake Okeechobee |
.20 |
2" |
.16 |
.08 |
.14 |
.15 |
|
East Agricultural Areas |
.29 |
2.5" |
.20 |
.07 |
.09 |
.10 |
|
West Agricultural Areas |
.19 |
2" |
.13 |
.09 |
.14 |
.15 |
|
Conservation Areas 1&2 |
.45 |
3" |
.27 |
.06 |
.05 |
.06 |
|
Conservation Area 3 |
.39 |
3" |
.15 |
.08 |
.08 |
.10 |
|
Martin/St Lucie Counties |
.37 |
2.5" |
.22 |
.06 |
.07 |
.08 |
|
East Palm Beach County |
.44 |
2.5" |
.26 |
.05 |
.05 |
.05 |
|
East Broward County |
.48 |
3" |
.21 |
.06 |
.04 |
.05 |
|
East Miami-Dade County |
.35 |
2.5" |
.09 |
.06 |
.05 |
.05 |
|
East Caloosahatchee |
.12 |
1.5" |
.10 |
.09 |
.20 |
.20 |
|
Big Cypress Preserve |
.19 |
2" |
.07 |
.10 |
.13 |
.14 |
|
Southwest Coast |
.07 |
1" |
.05 |
.10 |
.14 |
.14 |
|
District Overall |
0.25 |
- |
0.17 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
|
Forecast Confidence |
Moderate |
- |
Mod-High |
Mod-Low |
Moderate |
Mod-Low |
|
Most Likely Range |
0.15-0.30 |
- |
0.10-0.24 |
0.01-0.12 |
0.05-0.16 |
0.05-0.16 |
|
Discussion: A broad upper-level trough over the eastern United States has weakened the subtropical ridge across Florida, resulting in southwesterly steering currents across the region. This pattern will favor reduced rainfall along the southwest coast, as the Gulf sea breeze boundary is expected to move inland relatively early in the day. In contrast, greater shower and thunderstorm activity is expected along portions of the east coast, where interactions between the prevailing steering flow and the Atlantic sea breeze boundary will provide the lift required for thunderstorm development. A similar rainfall pattern is forecast on Tuesday.
By Wednesday, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild across Florida, promoting increased subsidence and a more stable atmospheric profile. In addition, the strengthening ridge will help transport a pocket of drier air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) northward from the western Caribbean Sea into the region. The combination of increased stability and reduced moisture should greatly suppress the usual shower and thunderstorm development, resulting in rainfall well below the climatological daily average.
Late in the week, the steering currents are forecast to become southeasterly along the lower east coast and veer southerly to southwesterly north of Lake Okeechobee. This pattern should favor reduced rainfall along the east coast as the Atlantic sea breeze advances inland earlier in the day. Meanwhile, interactions between the prevailing flow and the Gulf sea breeze boundary may support greater rainfall coverage across portions of the western interior and Kissimmee Valley. However, the forecast confidence for this time period is somewhat low due to uncertainty regarding the extent of moisture recovery following the midweek intrusion of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer.
By the weekend, an upper-level disturbance is forecast to dig slightly southward across the northeastern United States, allowing a frontal boundary to move southward toward central Florida. As the subtropical ridge weakens and shifts southward as well, southwesterly steering currents are expected to become reestablished across the region. Increasing moisture convergence along the approaching boundary could support a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms along parts of the east coast due to interactions with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary. In contrast, much reduced rainfall is likely along the west coast.
This pattern favors below to much below average total SFWMD rainfall for the 7-day period ending next Monday morning. |
Monday: Drier conditions along the Gulf coast. Heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop along portions of the east coast during the afternoon due to interactions with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary. SW winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday: Drier conditions along the Gulf coast. Heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop from the upper east coast into the Kissimmee Valley during the afternoon. SW winds at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Much drier overall. Brief isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop across most places during the afternoon. S/SSW winds at 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Dry along the east coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop over the western interior and Kissimmee Valley during the afternoon. SE winds at 5-10 mph south of Lake Okeechobee, veering S at 5-10 mph north of the Lake.
Friday: Dry along the east coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop over the western interior and Kissimmee Valley during the afternoon. SSE winds at 5-10 mph south of Lake Okeechobee, veering S/SSW at 5-10 mph north of the Lake.
Saturday: Dry along the west coast. Heavy scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop over the along parts of the east coast and Kissimmee Valley during the afternoon. SW winds at 5-10 mph (0.23”).
Sunday: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop over most of the interior during the afternoon. Light and variable winds (0.22”).
7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most Likely Range): 1.18" (0.60"-1.58")
Historical 7-Day Average: 2.03"
Lake Okeechobee Info:
https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt