South Florida Water Management District Weather

9:46AM Wednesday, March 04, 2026 (tbk)

…breezy…a good supply of shallow moisture expected to cause numerous…light showers along & near the east coast today…widely scattered to scattered showers forecast along & near the west coast this afternoon…

…widely scattered to scattered showers likely along & near the east coast on Thursday…then scattered to numerous afternoon showers & scattered thunderstorms…some potentially heavy…likely from the western interior to the Southwest Coast/west-central coast of Florida…localized…substantial rainfall totals possible…

…breezy and gusty easterly winds expected to veer east-southerly to southeasterly by Thursday and persist into the weekend before possibly decreasing some…

…a good coverage shower activity likely each day through Saturday…then an intrusion of drier…continental air could cause some decrease in shower activity late in the weekend or early next week…but a low-confidence forecast…

…total weekly SFWMD rainfall forecast to be near- to somewhat above normal…

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast	24Hr Begin   7AM Wed	Local Max	24Hr Begin 7AM Thu	24Hr Begin 7AM Fri	24Hr Begin 7AM Sat	24Hr Begin 7AM Sun
Upper Kissimmee	.03	<1"	.13	.05	.09	.08
Lower Kissimmee	.02	<1"	.14	.08	.04	.04
Lake Okeechobee	.01	<1"	.06	.02	.02	.01
East Agricultural Areas	.05	<1"	.13	.06	.09	.01
West Agricultural Areas	.03	<1"	.11	.07	.09	.03
Conservation Areas 1&2	.08	<1"	.09	.12	.14	.02
Conservation Area 3	.07	<1"	.07	.10	.11	.01
Martin/StLucie Counties	.04	<1"	.10	.07	.16	.01
East Palm Beach County	.14	1"	.09	.14	.17	.04
East Broward County	.26	1"	.06	.23	.21	.08
East Miami-Dade County	.21	1"	.04	.20	.23	.08
East Caloosahatchee	.0	<1"	.12	.08	.08	.02
Big Cypress Preserve	.04	<1"	.10	.09	.10	.05
Southwest Coast	.06	<1"	.26	.14	.18	.09
District Overall	0.06	-	0.12	0.09	0.11	0.04
Forecast Confidence	Moderate	-	Moderate	Mod-Low	Mod-Low	Mod-Low
Most Likely Range	0.03-0.08	-	0.05-0.17	0.04-0.13	0.02-0.16	0.01-0.05

Discussion: A weak upper-air disturbance has moved across Florida and into the southwestern Atlantic this morning while mid-level high pressure has temporarily positioned itself over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. That high will quickly shift into the southwestern Atlantic during the next 24 hours as another weak upper-air disturbance, primarily evident in the far upper part of the atmosphere, develops over the central Gulf and gradually approaches Florida by Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture extends from the western Caribbean northward across South Florida, with its axis expected to gradually shift westward through the day. This moisture, largely shallow in nature, is more abundant than anticipated yesterday, with localized regions seeing the lower-levels of the atmosphere near-saturation -- particularly along and near the east coast. Although instability is limited, weak large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance should support a good or widespread coverage of mainly light shower activity across the SFWMD today and tonight. The greatest coverage is expected along and near the east coast, where modest instability generated by the relatively warm Gulf Stream waters will enhance shower development, particularly along the Lower to Middle East Coasts. Coverage should be reduced across the south-central interior, though modest daytime heating could support a marginal uptick in showers near portions of the west coast. Farther north, with somewhat lower moisture content, activity should be more widely scattered to scattered north of Lake Okeechobee.

Area-averaged rainfall from Miami-Dade through Palm Beach Counties is forecast to range from fifteen hundredths to a quarter of an inch. Amounts should decrease steadily westward, averaging 0.02 to 0.06 inches across the south-central interior and less than 0.03 inches north of the Lake. A reasonable worst-case scenario would support one third four tenths of an inch of area-averaged rainfall along the Lower to Middle East Coasts, one tenth to two tenths of an inch over the eastern interior, slightly above a tenth to fifteen hundredths of an inch along the Southwest Coast, and 0.07 to 0.11 inches north of Lake Okeechobee.

Meanwhile, strong surface high pressure located over the central Atlantic will be reinforced as a cold, dense air mass and accompanying strong surface high move through Labrador and Atlantic Canada Thursday and Friday behind a northern jet-stream disturbance. The steep pressure gradient between this strengthening high and comparatively lower pressure over the Caribbean Sea will favor brisk and gusty easterly to east-southeasterly flow across the SFWMD. Because the net effect will be a persistence of strong high pressure over the western and central Atlantic into at least early this weekend, enhanced trade winds are expected to continue across the area.

Late this week, an intensifying trough of low pressure will develop over the western United States, which will help to bolster and further strengthen the mid-level high anchored over the western Atlantic. This pattern should block any frontal systems, keeping them well north and northwest of the SFWMD while the relatively strong trade winds carry an unusually moist air mass across the area. As a result, scattered to numerous showers are likely through Saturday, resulting in an overall coverage of light rainfall, with isolated areas of moderately heavy rain. With instability likely somewhat greater Thursday and Friday, a pattern more typical of the wet season could emerge, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms developing from the western interior and portions of the west coast, some of which could produce heavy rainfall.

Late in the weekend and into early next week, a northern jet-stream disturbance is expected to nudge the western Atlantic mid-level high eastward as it weakens, leading to a relative weakening of surface high pressure locally. This could allow trade winds to ease somewhat/ There are also new indications that somewhat drier continental air -- recycled from post-frontal air masses over the northwestern Atlantic -- could be drawn into the region. If this occurs, shower coverage could decrease either marginally or even significantly. Even so, measurable total SFWMD rainfall remains possible each day through much of the period.

This pattern for the next 7 to 10 days would be highly anomalous for this point in the month, as nearly all of the first ten days could record measurable total rainfall, well above the climatological average of only 7 to 8 wet days for the entire month. The next frontal passage is not currently projected until Thursday of next week, and even that boundary may not fully move the region. With roughly ten days between frontal passages -- Monday of this week to potentially next Thursday -- there is little opportunity for intrusions of drier, continental air, allowing the current moist easterly flow to persist, and with it, measurable total rainfall each day.

For the week ending next Wednesday morning, total area-averaged SFWMD rainfall is most likely to be near the long-term average, with some potential that it could finish above average. However, should drier continental air exert greater influence early next week, total weekly rainfall could trend somewhat below the long-term average.

This ongoing pattern will no doubt be beneficial for drought relief SFWMD wide. However, a larger impact on the ongoing drought would require a longer and more sustained period of above-normal rainfall.

Wednesday: Breezy. Numerous, mainly light showers expected across the SFWMD, especially along and near the east coast, where isolated areas of moderately heavy rainfall are possible. Amounts should be lower over the south-central interior. Scattered, light showers likely north of Lake Okeechobee. An overall widespread coverage of rainfall likely, with the heaviest rains forecast tobe along and near Lower to Middle East Coast. E to ENE winds 14 to 23 mph and gusty. Overnight, E to ESE winds 3 to 8 mph south of Lake Okeechobee and 2 to 6 mph over the Kissimmee Valley but 5 to 13 mph and gusty along the east coast.

Thursday: Breezy, with widely scattered to scattered, mainly light showers likely along and near the east coast, except possibly numerous along the Upper East Coast. Then, scattered to numerous showers, some heavy, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms likely from the western interior to the Southwest Coast and west-central coast of Florida. An overall fair to good coverage of light rainfall likely over the eastern half of the area and good to widespread over western areas, with localized, substantial rainfall totals. ESE winds 13 to 23 mph and gusty. Overnight, mainly E winds inland 3 to 8 mph and ESE 5 to 12 mph and gusty along the east coast.

Friday: Breezy, with scattered to numerous, mainly light showers possible along and near the east coast of the SFWMD. Widely scattered to scattered activity possible over inland areas, except scattered to locally numerous over western areas along with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle to late afternoon until early evening. An overall good coverage of light to moderately heavy rainfall possible. E to SE winds 14 to 23 mph and gusty south and east of Lake Okeechobee and 11 to 19 mph northwest of the Lake. Overnight, E to ENE winds 2 to 7 mph inland and 4 to 11 mph and occasionally gusty along the east coast.

Saturday: Scattered to numerous, mainly light showers possible area wide but especially concentrated along and near the east coast. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible from the western interior to the west coast during the afternoon. An overall good coverage of rainfall possible. E to SE winds 14 to 23 mph and gusty. Overnight, mainly E winds inland 2 to 5 mph, with periods of calm but ESE 4 to 10 mph and gusty along the east coast, strongest winds along the Lower to Middle East Coasts.

Sunday: Breezy over the eastern half of the SFWMD. Some decrease in shower activity possible area wide. Widely scattered shower activity possible along the east coast, mainly the Lower to Midde East Coast. Isolated showers farther inland, except widely scattered along and near the west coast during the afternoon. An overall fair to poor coverage of rainfall forecast. E to ESE winds 12 to 21 mph and gusty south and east of Lake Okeechobee and 9 to 18 mph northwest of the Lake. Overnight, E to ENE winds 1 to 4 mph inland, with long periods of calm and ESE 3 to 8 mph along the east coast.

Monday: Low-confidence forecast. Somewhat breezy, with widely scattered shower activity possible from Lake Okeechobee southward, with isolated activity over the Kissimmee Valley. A lower chance for the activity to be scattered, with a good concentration of afternoon rains from the western interior to near the west coast. An overall fair coverage of rainfall forecast, with a lower chance for a reasonably good coverage. ESE to SE winds 12 to 21 mph and occasionally gusty. Overnight, ESE winds 1 to 5 mph inland and 3 to 9 mph and occasionally gusty along the east coast (0.06"). 

Tuesday: Low-confidence forecast. Very warm over the western half of the SFWMD. Somewhat breezy, widely scattered showers across the SFWMD, except possibly scattered with isolated thunderstorms from the western interior to the west coast. An overall fair coverage of rainfall possible. A lower chance for a good coverage. ESE winds 13 to 23 mph and gusty. Overnight, ESE to SE winds 3 to 8 mph inland and 5 to 12 mph and gusty along the east coast (0.06").    

7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most Likely Range):  0.54" (0.19"-0.69")

Historical 7-Day Average:  0.49"

Lake Okeechobee Info:

https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt