South Florida Water Management District Weather

9:52AM Monday, August 10, 2026 (mrn)

 

...warm and dry conditions over the next several days with strong high pressure overhead...

...southeasterly steering currents will focus today’s rainfall from the Agricultural Areas northwestward into the southwest coast...

...a deepening west Atlantic trough will split the subtropical ridge into two by Wednesday, with one half over the Gulf of Mexico...

...this will lead to northwesterly steering currents that shift northeasterly south of Lake Okeechobee...

...a Saharan Air Layer could approach the region on Wednesday, but will mostly remain south of the area due to the steering flow...

...moisture associated with the trough and an approaching tropical wave could cause an increase in rainfall on Friday...

...another plume of Sarhan dust could approach south Florida this weekend...

...this pattern may result in much below average total SFWMD weekly rainfall...

 

Quantitative

Precipitation

Forecast

24Hr Begin   8AM Mon

Local

Max

24Hr Begin

8AM Tue

24Hr Begin

8AM Wed

24Hr Begin

8AM Thu

24Hr Begin

8AM Fri

Upper Kissimmee       

   .19

 2.5"

  .10

  .10

  .16

   .19

Lower Kissimmee       

   .12

  2"

  .01

  .03

  .08

   .12

Lake Okeechobee       

   .12

  2"

  .02

  .04

  .06

   .08

East Agricultural Areas

   .14

  2"

  .08

  .09

  .09

   .13

West Agricultural Areas

   .17

  2"

  .06

  .12

  .05

   .15

Conservation Areas 1&2

   .05

  1"

  .06

  .07

  .11

   .14

Conservation Area 3   

   .08

  2"

  .15

  .12

  .13

   .17

Martin/St Lucie Counties

   .08

 1.5"

  .02

  .05

  .10

   .12

East Palm Beach County

   .05

  2"

  .02

  .05

  .10

   .10

East Broward County   

   .04

 <1"

  .02

  .06

  .10

   .10

East Miami-Dade County

   .04

 <1"

  .02

  .09

  .11

   .08

East Caloosahatchee   

   .18

 2.5"

  .01

  .04

  .03

   .16

Big Cypress Preserve  

   .14

 2.5"

  .15

  .21

  .11

   .20

Southwest Coast       

   .21

 2.5"

  .04

  .14

  .02

   .18

District Overall

0.13

-

0.06

0.09

0.09

0.14

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

-

Moderate

Mod-Low

Mod-Low

Mod-Low

Most Likely Range

0.05-0.17

-

0.02-0.10

0.04-0.14

0.04-0.15

0.08-0.19

 

Discussion: The subtropical ridge has continued to expand westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge has allowed the mid-levels of the atmosphere to become noticeably drier and more stable than usual for August. This increasingly unfavorable environment should suppress the coverage and intensity of the daily shower and thunderstorm activity, resulting in rainfall totals well below the climatological daily average.

 

Through Monday, southeasterly steering currents will continue to favor an early inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, which should limit afternoon rainfall coverage along much of the east coast. The primary focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected to shift inland, generally from the Agricultural Areas toward the southwest coast, where interactions between the inland-moving Atlantic sea breeze and the Gulf sea breeze boundary may provide sufficient convergence for thunderstorm activity. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms could also develop across portions of the Kissimmee Valley.

 

By Tuesday, the subtropical ridge is forecast to become centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, steering currents north of Lake Okeechobee should become light northwesterly, while easterly flow develops south of the lake and along the lower east coast. Areas near the ridge axis around Lake Okeechobee should remain particularly dry, with strong subsidence and limited moisture suppressing most thunderstorm development. Brief, isolated showers and thunderstorms may still develop across the far northern Kissimmee Valley and along portions of the southwest coast, where the easterly steering flow interacts with the Gulf sea breeze boundary.

 

By Wednesday, an upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to deepen offshore of the eastern United States. This should weaken and split the subtropical ridge, leaving one center over the south-central United States and another over the central tropical Atlantic. In response, the steering currents across the SFWMD are expected to become generally northwesterly north of Lake Okeechobee and more northeasterly farther south.

 

This pattern should favor isolated shower and thunderstorm development across the Kissimmee Valley, with some activity potentially moving southeastward toward the upper east coast during the late afternoon. South of Lake Okeechobee, the northeasterly steering currents should favor an inland-moving Atlantic sea breeze and shift most of the afternoon thunderstorm activity toward the southwest coast, where interactions with the Gulf sea breeze boundary will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development. A similar rainfall pattern appears likely on Thursday, with overall rainfall remaining below average.

 

A plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) air is also forecast to approach South Florida by Wednesday. However, the evolving northeasterly steering pattern may keep the driest and most stable portion of the SAL displaced mainly south of the Florida peninsula. If so, moisture levels across the SFWMD would remain higher than previously forecasted, although continued subsidence and limited instability should still prevent any significant increase in rainfall through midweek.

 

By Friday, a plume of deeper moisture located offshore of Florida's east coast and associated with the offshore trough could shift westward across the peninsula as ridging strengthens over the eastern United States. Additional moisture may also approach the region in association with a tropical wave moving through the western Atlantic and Caribbean. This could result in a notable increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage across much of the SFWMD on Friday.

 

Beyond Friday, another plume of SAL air may approach the region over the weekend. Should this drier and more stable air mass spread across South Florida, shower and thunderstorm coverage would likely decrease substantially once again, with daily rainfall returning to well below the climatological average.

 

Overall, the upcoming pattern continues to favor persistent ridging, periods of enhanced subsidence and mid-level drying, and only brief opportunities for increased moisture and rainfall. For the 7-day period ending next Monday morning, this pattern favors much below normal total SFWMD rainfall.

 

Monday: Dry conditions along the east coast with isolated light showers and thunderstorms during the morning. By the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop from the Agricultural areas into the southwest coast and the Kissimmee Valley. Light showers could move onshore along parts of the east coast overnight.

Tuesday: Dry conditions overall with isolated light shower activity along the east coast during the morning. By the afternoon, short-lived isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop generally south of Lake Okeechobee and over the far northern Kissimmee.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop over the Kissimmee Valley during the afternoon. Some of these storms could shift southeastward into the upper east coast by the late afternoon. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could also develop generally south of Lake Okeechobee and along the Gulf coast sea breeze boundary.

Thursday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop over the Kissimmee Valley during the afternoon. Some of these storms could shift southeastward into the upper east coast by the late afternoon. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could also develop generally south of Lake Okeechobee and along the Gulf coast sea breeze boundary.

Friday: Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop around Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon. A greater coverage of storms is likely along the southwest coast and northern Kissimmee.

Saturday: Dry conditions along the east coast, while isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop generally from the central interior into the west coast during the afternoon. A greater coverage of storm activity is possible south of Lake Okeechobee and along parts of the southwest coast (0.14”).

Sunday: Dry conditions along the east coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Kissimmee and southwest coast during the afternoon (0.02”).

 

7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most Likely Range):  0.66" (0.30"-1.01")

Historical 7-Day Average:  1.70"

 

Lake Okeechobee Info:

https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt